evidenceobservational
Major AI research labs report progress but do not claim to have achieved AGI yet.
85% confidence
Organizations like OpenAI, DeepMind, and others have made headlines with AI models demonstrating impressive skills, such as generating human-like text or mastering complex games. However, their own statements emphasize that these are still narrow AI systems. For example, DeepMind's AlphaGo mastered Go but cannot apply that strategy to other unrelated tasks. Researchers acknowledge that scaling these models alone may not lead directly to AGI without new breakthroughs in understanding cognition and reasoning.
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