From: The Quest for Artificial General Intelligence: How Close Are We?
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Leading AI researchers estimate AGI could arrive within the next few decades.

70% confidence

Surveys of AI experts reveal a wide range of predictions, but many center around a 20 to 50-year timeline for AGI development. These estimates consider current trends in hardware improvements, algorithmic innovation, and data availability. However, timelines remain speculative due to the complexity of intelligence and unknown challenges that might arise.

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The Quest for Artificial General Intelligence: How Close Are We?
Evidence, perspectives, rabbit holes, and more