From: Are We Living in a Simulation? Unraveling the Fabric of Reality
evidenceobservational

The exponential growth of computing power and virtual reality technology makes the concept of ancestor simulations increasingly plausible.

80% confidence

Consider the trajectory of technological advancement over the past few decades. From rudimentary pixelated games to photorealistic virtual reality environments, our capacity to create immersive digital worlds has grown exponentially. Moore's Law, though debated in its precise future, has historically predicted a doubling of transistors on microchips every two years, leading to a massive increase in processing power. This rapid progression suggests that, given enough time, any sufficiently advanced civilization could develop the computational resources to simulate entire universes, complete with sentient beings. Modern virtual reality and augmented reality systems already strive to mimic physical reality, engaging multiple senses. The logical extension of this trend, reaching a 'posthuman' stage of technological maturity, would be the ability to create simulations indistinguishable from reality, even to the simulated inhabitants themselves. This technological feasibility argument is a cornerstone of Bostrom's hypothesis, positing that if we can conceive of it and are progressing towards it, other civilizations might have already achieved it, leading to the statistical likelihood of our own simulated status.

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Are We Living in a Simulation? Unraveling the Fabric of Reality
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