Some market theorists argue that the entire premise of decoding institutional footprints is fundamentally flawed, because institutional traders actively disguise their intentions. Iceberg orders, for instance, hide the true size of institutional positions, and algorithmic trading can fragment large orders to avoid revealing market impact. From this perspective, SMC is a game of cat and mouse where the 'smart money' has every incentive to stay hidden. The framework's apparent success may partly stem from survivorship bias — traders who found a profitable pattern using SMC share it, while those who lost money quietly disappear. This does not mean SMC has no value, but it suggests its predictive power may be narrower and more fragile than its proponents claim.
Supporting arguments
- Institutional traders use tools like iceberg orders specifically to prevent their footprints from being visible.
- Survivorship bias in trading communities inflates the perceived success rate of any framework.
- Market microstructure research shows that information asymmetry is far more complex than any single framework can capture.